Buckeyes Favored in Close Rose Bowl Matchup

Ohio State enters the Rose Bowl Game as a slight favorite over Oregon, according to the latest computer simulations.

According to Sports Illustrated, the Buckeyes are projected to win in 53.6% of the 20,000 simulations conducted by the Football Power Index (FPI), while Oregon comes out on top in 46.4% of the scenarios.

The FPI rankings use data from 20,000 simulations to predict team performance based on a variety of factors, including past scores, quality of opponents, team talent, and recruiting. Teams are ranked not by talent, but by their projected point margin against an average team on a neutral field.

The model forecasts a narrow victory for Ohio State, with the Buckeyes expected to win by just 1.3 points. However, this margin would not be enough for Ohio State to cover the 2.5-point spread, according to current betting lines from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Ohio State’s offense, ranked among the top 10 in several key metrics, has been a dominant force this season, though not without a few vulnerabilities. The Buckeyes (10-2) boast a high-powered offense that ranks in the top 10 in success rate, expected points added per play (EPA/play), and marginal efficiency.

However, the offensive line has struggled against extra rushers, ranking 78th in blitz-down sack rate. Additionally, Ohio State’s run-blocking has been a concern.

Defensively, Ohio State has been nearly unstoppable. The Buckeyes’ secondary has faced the fifth-fewest deep passes in the country, with just under 10% of passes traveling 20 yards or more downfield.

This is due in large part to the relentless pressure from Ohio State’s defensive line, which ranks fifth nationally with a 43.4% pressure rate and second with a 9.8% sack rate. As a result, opposing quarterbacks have had little time to develop deep routes.

While the Buckeyes are allowing a relatively high 60.1% completion rate (63rd in the nation), they rank third overall in EPA/dropback. This suggests that short completions have not significantly hurt Ohio State, as their defense has been able to limit yardage despite giving up a moderate completion percentage.

Bettors are leaning toward an upset, with 62% of wagers backing Oregon to either win outright or lose by 1 or 2 points. The remaining 38% of bets predict Ohio State will cover the spread and win by at least a field goal.