It’s election season in Pasadena. But with just two months before voters start casting ballots in the June primary, all the City Council races may already be decided.
Three incumbents are all running for re-election, one unopposed. The challengers in the other two races both submitted their signatures on the last day of filing – and are virtually unknown.
People start voting in just two months. It’s nearly impossible to organize a campaign in that time, let alone reach thousands of voters – particularly since those voters are paying attention to the national economy, the Iran War, the daily Trump drama, not to mention their own lives.
Pasadena doesn’t have full-time local politicians. But don’t kid yourself: City elections in Pasadena are serious business. It typically takes at least six months and at least $100,000 to mount a successful campaign, even when running for an open Council seat where there is no incumbent seeking re-election. For example, Jason Lyon, the District 7 incumbent, has already raised over $121,000 in campaign contributions for the upcoming race by the last reporting deadline of December 31.
So what does it take to win in Pasadena? Here are five simple rules. They may change in the years ahead, but each applies strongly now:
Rule One is that it’s hard to beat an incumbent. In the last five decades, it’s only happened three times: Rick Cole in 1983, Bill Paparian in 1987 and Rick Cole in 2024. Incumbents have automatic visibility and name recognition. Incumbents have helped hundreds, maybe even thousands of constituents with their problems while serving in office. Incumbents start with the connections to raise early money and scoop up endorsements.
Challengers must not only make a case for themselves, they must also make a case for change. The argument for change can be an incumbent’s weakness or widespread dissatisfaction with the status quo. Absent one or the other (or both), voters are inclined to stick with the known quantity.
Rule Two is you need credibility. There are many ways to earn that critical edge, including a strong record of community service or organized backing from one or more interest or advocacy groups. Without it, you really don’t stand a chance. A relative unknown can win appointment by the City Council to fill a vacancy, as Jess Rivas did in 2021, but no one wins a contested election starting from scratch.
Endorsements can be helpful for credibility, but they are often overrated. Low information voters may be influenced by the seal of approval from, say, the Democratic Party or the Firefighters Union or the Sierra Club or particular community leaders. But remember, we are all overloaded with campaign noise at election time and keeping all that straight is difficult even for those in the know.
Rule Three is that you need a well-run campaign. Last minute candidates often jump in thinking, “How hard can it be? I’ll go to the candidate forums and debates, I’ll be interviewed by the press, I’ll post on social media – and people will quickly see how awesome I am.” Wrong. Winning requires some combination of professional advice, money, volunteers and the time to go door to door yourself and introduce yourself to thousands of voters at their doors. Each part of that requires careful planning and effort – and can’t be skipped if you have any hope of even being serious, let alone successful.
Rule Four is you need a coherent message. That’s much more than a catchy slogan, although that helps focus your message. It’s true, some voters will focus on a single element that is important to them (Are you pro-bike? Are you anti-rent control? Will you put speed bumps on my street?) But the decision for most voters will boil down to which candidate has the most clear and compelling narrative. That requires a high level of both self-awareness and understanding of your constituency. You must answer their core question: why should I vote for you?
Rule Five is the culmination of the first three. What counts in the end are the decisions of thousands of individual voters. Voter turn-out was low in local elections before they were moved to coincide with County, State and Federal elections. Most voters in strictly local elections were paying attention to local races – otherwise, why vote? Now far more people will cast ballots but local candidates must compete for attention with the hundreds of millions of dollars spent on all the other campaigns going on at the same time.
There are many ways to get voter attention, but there is no substitute for some form of direct contact. Whether it is the candidate or volunteers knocking on doors, phoning, sending texts, mailing or social media, successful candidates need to break through the noise and memorably connect with voters.
Forums and debates, while educational (and useful for press coverage) seldom move the needle because most people who attend are there to cheer for their candidate. Recent results in Pasadena confirm that when it comes to Council elections, you can have a strong citywide profile but if you aren’t connecting with the actual voters in your district, you are wasting your time.
Each of these five rules have nuances. While Rule One says is hard to beat an incumbent, it is not impossible. But pulling off an upset requires more than luck. It takes a combination of long, hard work and strong support. That support either comes from something the incumbent has got wrong or something you have got right. Throwing your hat in the ring at the last minute won’t cut it.
On Rule Two, your base of support can vary widely. It can be personal – you may have lots of friends. But they must be willing to generously contribute to your campaign and put in lots of volunteer time. It can be a special interest: landlords, tenants, environmentalists, preservationists, business, labor etc. But you can’t rely on any narrow appeal – in fact that can hurt you if it fuels the perception that you will represent that interest rather than the voters. Credibility can be earned by years of volunteering in the community, serving on commissions, being active in a faith community or youth sports. But many candidates are surprised that an impressive resume doesn’t guarantee votes. Your previous service has to translate into a cohort of supporters who’ve worked with you, can vouch for you and will work hard to get you elected.
Rule Three is particularly nuanced. Many candidates, especially rich ones, expect they can buy a winning campaign by hiring a slick consultant. Only a handful of these professionals actually know Pasadena, let alone the dynamics of any of the seven districts. Hiring an outside campaign firm will give you only generic (and pricey) help. Even the seasoned local veterans can only do so much if the candidate isn’t prepared to commit countless hours of their own time to knocking on doors, raising money and motivating volunteers.
There is also a profound difference in how professionals approach campaigns. As professionals, they’ve developed specific formulas that have worked for them in the past – that don’t necessarily translate to a specific race in a specific district at a specific time. Some, for example, specialize in campaign mailers – but when voters are inundated with mailers at election time, that may have far less impact than door to door campaigning. Others may specialize in negative campaigns, which can work against vulnerable opponents, but can backfire when voters see the attacks as malicious or unfair.
Rule Four is perhaps the most difficult hurdle for first-time candidates who don’t have a record to define them (for better or worse). Voters are not (typically) cynical. But they are realistic. They know you can’t work miracles. They know you’re human. You must have a convincing story to tell that succinctly conveys not only why they should vote for you, but in some cases about why they should bother to vote at all.
Finally, while Rule Five is timeless, elections are not. Time is the one thing you are sure to run out of in a campaign. Many things in life can be postponed. Elections are not one of them. Every aspect of a campaign requires sufficient time to execute: organizing a campaign, putting up a website, seeking endorsements, raising money, setting up and attending events, thinking through issues, motivating volunteers, knocking on doors. It’s a rare campaign that can accomplish all these, let alone do them all well.
These five rules are the known factors. There are also unknown challenges. No one can predict in advance what the day’s news will bring or what your opponent(s) will do. It’s easy to be thrown off your game. Especially for first time candidates, everything is new. It’s tough to navigate all the unexpected trials and tribulations that come your way.
Contested elections are good (even if incumbents would prefer to duck them.) Yet truly competitive elections are actually rare for Pasadena City Council – especially against incumbents. Good luck to this year’s challengers, they have their work cut out for them!
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