We Get Letters: Straight Talk on the Coronavirus

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Straight talk on the Coronavirus

Don’t be fooled by claims that this is “just the flu,” or “no worse than the flu” unless you are specifically referring to the 1918 Spanish Influenza outbreak, with its fatality rate of 2.5 percent.

The typical seasonal flu pandemic is around 0.1 percent. The publicly stated fatality rate of the corona virus is around 2 percent.

The infection rate expands on an exponential basis. Let’s look at South Korea. On February 20th there were 30 cases, eight days later, that number had jumped to 2022 cases, and as of March 1st the reported confirmed cases was over 3100.

So far, the epicenter in the US however seems to be Kirkland, Washington. A nursing home there has had something like 50 confirmed cases, and two fatalities. One of the fire stations in Kirkland is under quarantine, after they reported to a call at that nursing home, without adequate protective gear. Does our Pasadena Fire Department have adequate protective gear to respond to a similar call for service? Are we prepared to place a Pasadena fire station under quarantine?

CDC says that “the vast majority” of the American people are not going to be struck seriously ill by this virus.The same will be true for Pasadena.

Most people who come down with the coronavirus may never even realize they have it. They will probably think they have the flu. Hopefully they will take normal flu precautions: stay home from work; cover their face when they cough or sneeze; wash their hands a lot and use hand sanitizer. But we can expect that 2% will die and senior citizens and those with reduced immune systems will be at higher risk.

The current population of Pasadena is approximately 138,000. Assuming a .2 percent fatality rate we are looking at a potential of 2,760 citizens of Pasadena dying.

If only 10 percent of Pasadena comes down with the coronavirus we are looking at 13,800 people requiring intense medical care and quarantine. And that’s assuming only a 10 percent infection rate.

Is the City of Pasadena prepared? Our Public Health Officer declared a Public Health Emergency this morning.

Is our Washington DC lobbyist working on securing emergency funding from the Trump Administration for our Health Department and an immediate shipment of coronavirus testing kits?

Do we have a contingency plan in place for the closure of public and private schools and large public events?

This is not the time for business as usual at Pasadena City Hall.

If we wait for the first reported case of the coronavirus in Pasadena it will be too late.

 

William M. Paparian
Former Mayor of Pasadena

 

Got something to say, email Managing Editor André Coleman, at andrec@pasadenanowmagazine.com