Study: Actual Death Toll from LA Wildfires May Be Much Higher Than Reported

Cell phone images of the first moments after the Eaton Fire ignited on Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025, on the mountainside opposite Midwick Drive’s terminus at N. Altadena Drive in Altadena. [Jennifer Errico]

While the official death toll from January’s Palisades and Eaton fires stands at 31, a research paper published Wednesday suggests the actual number of fire-related fatalities is likely much higher — in the hundreds.

The research paper published in the Journal of the American Medical Association concluded that there were 440 more deaths between Jan. 5 and Feb. 1 in Los Angeles County than would be typically expected. Many of those are likely attributable to the wildfires, which erupted Jan. 7.

The additional deaths are likely attributable to fire-related factors such as lung or heart conditions that were exacerbated by smoke or stress and indirect causes such as disruptions to health systems and mental health impacts, according to the paper.

“Attributing deaths properly to a wildfire is just almost an impossible task,” Andrew Stokes, an associate professor at Boston University and a mortality demographer who co-authored the research, told the Los Angeles Times. “The research highlights the need for these types of modeling efforts to really get at the true burden of these disasters.”

Researchers compared the number of recorded deaths in the county between Jan. 5 and Feb. 1 with figures from other years — excluding 2020-23, when the COVID-19 pandemic elevated the death totals.

According to the paper, 6,371 deaths were recorded during that period this year, compared to 5,931 that were anticipated based on the numbers from prior years.

Officially, 19 deaths have been attributed to the Eaton Fire in Altadena and 12 in the Palisades Fire in Pacific Palisades.

Stokes told The Times that the actual number of fire-related deaths could continue to go higher due to lingering health effects such as poor air quality and exposure to smoke and ash.

“What we’ve done here is what we call a rapid assessment of the L.A. wildfire mortality,” Stokes said. “And as such, we only focus on the acute period in which the wildfires were burning in Los Angeles. But we hope that there will be further research to evaluate the long tail of these wildfires.”