Why the California Legislature Will Look Different in 2025

No matter how many California lawmakers win reelection next week, there will still be plenty of turnover at the state Capitol.

A dozen state senators and two dozen Assemblymembers are exiting — due to term limits; because they’re seeking another office; or for other (and sometimes multiple) reasons. That churn — which could grow if incumbents lose — already rivals the “Great Resignation” of 2022 that helped produce the most diverse Legislature ever.

The list of those leaving, compiled by lobbyist and legislative watcher Chris Micheli, includes some big names:

• Sen. Toni Atkins, a San Diego Democrat, the first openly gay leader of that chamber, the first woman to lead both chambers and now a candidate for governor in 2026.

• Sen. Brian Dahle, a Redding Republican who unsuccessfully ran for governor in 2022.

• Sen. Steve Glazer, an Orinda Democrat who ran for state controller in 2022.

• Sen. Nancy Skinner, an Oakland Democrat who has been influential on housing and other issues.

• Assemblymember Anthony Rendon, a Lakewood Democrat who was speaker for seven years until he was forced to give up the post to Robert Rivas in 2023.

• Assemblymember Reggie Jones-Sawyer, a Los Angeles Democrat whose leadership of the public safety committee was contentious.

How much impact the turnover has on state policy depends largely on whether Democrats keep their two-thirds supermajorities in both the Senate and Assembly. This has allowed them to pass budgets without a single Republican vote and generally ignore GOP legislators.

Democrats now hold 62 of 80 seats in the Assembly and 31 of 40 in the Senate. Even if Democrats keep their seats, policy changes also hinge on whether more business-friendly Democrats or more progressive candidates win.

Early voting: With eight more days of voting, nearly 4.5 million Californians had returned their ballots as of Monday. Those numbers will likely accelerate with the opening of vote centers in 29 counties over the weekend. Still, so far the return rate is well below the last presidential election, in 2020, when the final turnout of 81% among registered voters was the highest since 1976.

Election security: Attorney General Rob Bonta sent out a bulletin Monday about the rules for third parties returning ballots and about unofficial ballot boxes, including when it’s a crime. Tensions are running high, highlighted by a ballot box set on fire early Monday in a closely watched congressional district in Washington state, plus another in Oregon.

For the record: Friday’s WhatMatters item on the state Republican Party and mail voting was updated to clarify the outcome of the 2020 drop box case and the party’s stance.

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