Tariffs Hit Electronics Supply Chain Harder Than Pandemic, Pasadena Company’s Index Shows

Electronics manufacturers are facing supply chain disruptions more severe than those experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic, according to new industry data released Tuesday.

Supplyframe’s Commodity IQ Lead Time Index hit 166.6 in April 2025, the highest reading in the index’s history. The score far exceeds the baseline of 100 and surpasses the previous record of 146.7 set in January 2022 during pandemic-related shortages.

The Pasadena-based company tracks lead times for more than 600 million parts across 180 global distributors and 27,000 suppliers.

“Today’s lead time surge shows the market impact of the trade wars is happening faster, within a shorter duration, and with greater intensity than what we experienced during the pandemic,” said Steve Flagg, Supplyframe’s CEO and founder.

Lead times are projected to rise 75% from March through June 2025, Supplyframe’s analysis showed. The April increase of 85% exceeds even the 80% jump seen in December 2019, which preceded major pandemic shortages.

Capacitors, often viewed as a bellwether for the electronics industry, saw lead times jump nearly 43% between March and April.

Companies are placing forward orders and trying to diversify suppliers away from China to reduce tariff exposure. But Flagg warned these strategies have limits.

“Once businesses consume their forward inventory, there’s limited buffer from reduced product availability and higher prices,” he said.

The analysis also showed rising demand is colliding with falling inventory levels. Many businesses are stockpiling electronic components to avoid potential shortages. Others continue investing in AI services that require specialized data center hardware.

Supplyframe’s Commodity IQ Inventory Index dropped to 51.1 in April, well below the 100 baseline. From November 2024 through April 2025, inventory scores hit historic lows.

Supply constraints are already affecting high-speed connectors and programmable logic devices.

Price increases typically follow inventory drops. After inventory levels hit lows in mid-2021, prices rose 6.5% in the fourth quarter and jumped 14.1% in early 2022.

Current price hikes haven’t spread widely across electronics components yet. But microcontrollers and microprocessors are set to rise 14% in the second quarter of 2025. Preliminary forecasts suggest a 6% increase could come in July.

A PYMNTS Intelligence report found one in four product leaders are changing designs, pricing or market strategies in response to tariff uncertainty.

Many experts agree shortages could emerge in coming months. However, some say current disruptions are less chaotic than pandemic-era effects. The full impact of tariffs may not appear for six to 12 months.

“Tariffs are changing the game for companies across key sectors that rely on electronic components to power their products,” Flagg said. “But tariffs are just one of the many risks that supply chains face.”